2027: Nigeria on brink of collapse, middle class wiped out, Duke warns

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The presidential candidate of the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP), Donald Duke, has warned that Nigeria is failing in its fundamental responsibilities to citizens, citing worsening insecurity, widespread poverty, unemployment and the erosion of the middle class.

Duke, a former governor of Cross River State, said his decision to contest the 2027 presidential election was driven by the need to offer an alternative at a time when the country's economic and social challenges were becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.

Speaking in an interview on Tuesday, he said Nigerians could not afford another four years of what he described as the country's current decline, insisting that presidential aspirants should prioritise solutions to national problems over political personalities.

According to him, his entry into the race was motivated by a sense of responsibility rather than any certainty of winning the election.

“You get to a point in your life where you say, ‘Either I walk away or I do something.’

“There is no guarantee that you will win. But I don’t want to look back and say that all these things happened and I did nothing,” he said.

Duke said the urgency of Nigeria's situation required leaders to confront the country's problems directly instead of allowing existing difficulties to persist.

“I talk about the urgency of now because I don’t think we can go on like this for another four years,” he said.

He added that his campaign would focus on identifying the challenges confronting Nigerians and presenting policy options to address them.

“What I want to do is focus on those who aspire to lead this nation on addressing the issues that affect us and how we can resolve them.

“I talk about the options. I talk about the real issues. I don’t want to talk about personalities,” he said.

'Government failing to protect citizens'

The PRP candidate described Nigeria's security challenges as evidence of deeper institutional and economic weaknesses, pointing to banditry, terrorism, kidnapping and other violent conflicts across the country.

He argued that the state was failing to meet its obligations when citizens could not rely on public institutions to protect them or provide an environment conducive to productive living.

“If we don’t address these issues squarely and fundamentally, we’re already a failed state. There’s no question about it,” Duke said.

He maintained that the presence of government institutions alone was insufficient to demonstrate that a country was functioning effectively.

“What is the definition of a failed state? Fundamentally, it is a state that fails to meet the aspirations of its people.

“You may still have a government and institutions, but if the state cannot protect the people and provide the environment in which they can live productive lives, then it is failing them,” he said.

Duke said the consequences of insecurity were best understood by people who had directly experienced kidnapping and other forms of violence.

“Talk to someone who has been kidnapped. That person does not need you to explain the definition of a failed state. His experience has already told him what failure of the state means,” he added.

Duke laments disappearance of middle class

The former governor also expressed concern over the deteriorating financial position of households that would ordinarily be considered middle class, arguing that economic pressures had left many living from one day to the next.

He said the country was increasingly characterised by a small wealthy population and a much larger number of people struggling with poverty or the risk of falling into it.

“You have perhaps one per cent who are genuinely wealthy and then a huge number of people struggling around or below the poverty line.

“The so-called middle class does not really exist anymore. Many of those we call middle class are only surviving from day-to-day. Let there be one serious emergency and they crumble,” he said.

Duke blamed the situation partly on the difficulties facing businesses, noting that existing enterprises were contracting while new ones were not emerging quickly enough to create employment.

He said the gap between the number of people entering the labour market and the available jobs remained a major concern, particularly as universities and other institutions continued to produce graduates.

“Businesses are contracting. New ones are not springing up the way they should. At the same time, we are turning out graduates every year and adding more people to the working population, but there is no work for them to do,” he said.

He also linked unemployment and poverty to insecurity, particularly kidnapping and banditry, arguing that the government must address the underlying causes rather than rely primarily on responses after incidents occur.

“When it comes to banditry and kidnapping, poverty and unemployment are at the bottom of much of it.

“We keep reacting to these crises instead of asking what is producing them. We are too reactive in our governance. Governance is not just about today; it is about laying the foundation for tomorrow,” he said.

Population growth outpaces economic capacity

Duke further questioned whether Nigeria had developed sufficient economic capacity to support its rapidly growing population, using the country's crude oil production as an example.

He recalled that Nigeria produced about 2.5 million barrels of crude oil daily in 1980, compared with approximately 1.7 million barrels at present, while the population had tripled over the same period.

“In 1980, Nigeria was producing about 2.5 million barrels of oil a day. Forty-six years later, we are producing around 1.7 million barrels, while our population has tripled.

“So you have to ask: has the economy expanded enough to carry the population? Clearly, it has not,” he said.

He argued that population growth should provide Nigeria with a larger productive workforce and consumer market, but said this would only be possible if the government ensured access to education, employment and other opportunities.

“Our numbers ought to be an asset. But a large population is an asset only when you can educate the people, employ them and make them productive,” he said.

The PRP candidate also warned that prolonged hardship could encourage more Nigerians who could afford to relocate to seek better opportunities abroad, further highlighting the consequences of the country's economic difficulties.

Why I chose Nigeria over America — Duke

Duke said his decision to seek the presidency was consistent with his longstanding belief in Nigeria's potential and his desire to contribute to the country's development.

He disclosed that he had the opportunity to remain in the United States after studying and working there in his twenties but voluntarily returned to Nigeria because he believed his future contribution belonged at home.

“I had the opportunity in my twenties to remain in America. I went to school there and worked there for a while.

“But I voluntarily decided that was not where I wanted to be. I believe the Almighty put me in Nigeria for a reason. I believe in this country’s possibilities, and this is where I believe I should contribute,” he said.

He said the same motivation informed his decision to contest the Cross River governorship election in 1999, adding that his experience had strengthened his conviction that Nigeria could achieve better results with effective leadership.

“I wanted to prove then that we were better than what we were putting forward. From experience, I know Nigeria can be a very successful nation,” Duke said.

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