Nigeria’s political space is witnessing growing tension ahead of the 2027 general elections, with leading lawyers, activists and opposition politicians warning that the country could slide toward a one-party state if current developments within the electoral and judicial systems persist.
The concerns were strongly expressed on Thursday at the fifth Comrade Yinka Odumakin Memorial Lecture held in Ikeja, Lagos, where human rights lawyer Femi Falana (SAN), the Aare Ona Kakanfo of Yorubaland, Gani Adams, and other civil society leaders criticised what they described as increasing interference in the internal affairs of political parties.
The event, organised by the Oluyinka Odumakin Foundation and hosted by its President, Dr Joe Odumakin, attracted prominent activists and labour leaders, including Nigeria Labour Congress President Joe Ajaero, activist and publisher of Sahara Reporters Omoyele Sowore, Senior Advocate of Nigeria Olumide Fusika, International Press Centre Executive Director Lanre Arogundade, and activists Agba Jalingo and Richard Akinola.
Speaking at the memorial lecture, Falana warned that the manipulation of court processes in party disputes could destabilise Nigeria’s multi-party system and potentially leave the country with only one presidential candidate in the 2027 election.
The senior lawyer said the growing trend of conflicting court orders and judicial intervention in party leadership tussles posed a serious threat to democratic competition.
“Through the manipulation of Nigerian courts and senior lawyers, you may have only one candidate contesting the presidential election in this country,” Falana said.
“If that happens, Nigeria may not even need to spend money on a presidential election.”
According to him, Nigerians could react strongly if they begin to feel that their democratic choices are being systematically restricted.
Falana urged civil society groups, labour unions and pro-democracy activists to begin organising themselves to protect democratic institutions rather than merely lamenting the state of the nation.
“We must stop agonising and start organising in the interest of our people and democracy,” he said.
Also speaking at the event, Gani Adams warned that Nigeria was gradually drifting toward a one-party system, accusing those in power of deploying the judiciary to weaken opposition parties.
Adams said the situation reminded him of the political repression witnessed during the military era and the pro-democracy struggles of the 1990s.
“We are moving towards a one-party system. Those in power are using the judiciary to suppress the will of the people,” Adams said.
“We may end up having only one presidential candidate in Nigeria if care is not taken.”
He cautioned Nigerians against remaining silent simply because their ethnic group or political allies currently control the government, warning that political power is cyclical and silence in the face of injustice could eventually be turned against those who ignore it.
Beyond the immediate political concerns, Falana also revisited the longstanding debate over restructuring Nigeria’s federal system.
In his lecture titled “Can Nigeria’s Democracy Work without Restructuring?”, he argued that the country currently operates a highly centralised governance structure that concentrates power in the federal government.
He noted that the First Republic operated a more decentralised system in which regions controlled institutions such as the police, courts and local governments.
However, he said the 1999 Constitution significantly expanded the powers of the federal government, increasing the number of items on the Exclusive Legislative List.
“In 1963 there were about 45 items on the Exclusive List, but today we have about 68 items. Practically everything is controlled by Abuja,” Falana said.
While acknowledging that some powers had recently been devolved to states through constitutional amendments and court rulings, Falana criticised state governments for failing to utilise those powers.
He pointed out that sectors such as electricity generation, railways and prisons had been moved from the Exclusive List, yet most states had not taken advantage of the opportunity to develop these areas.
Falana also expressed reservations about the proposed introduction of state police, warning that it could be abused by governors to target political opponents, citing historical precedents during the First Republic.
Other speakers at the memorial lecture expressed similar concerns about the direction of Nigeria’s democracy.
Senior Advocate of Nigeria Olumide Fusika warned that the country was approaching a dangerous point amid worsening insecurity.
Human rights activist Richard Akinola criticised what he described as a troubling relationship between politicians and the judiciary.
“Politicians have hijacked the judiciary, and it is dangerous,” Akinola said.
Nigeria Labour Congress President Joe Ajaero argued that a small elite had captured the country’s political and economic structures, calling for restructuring, devolution of powers and local control of resources.
He also supported the establishment of state police as part of broader governance reforms.
Activist Omoyele Sowore, however, warned that worsening economic hardship and insecurity under President Bola Tinubu could push Nigerians toward revolutionary agitation.
“These are revolutionary times if we take advantage of them,” Sowore said, adding that the prevailing conditions could trigger widespread resistance against the political establishment.
The growing tension comes amid an escalating leadership crisis within the African Democratic Congress, which has drawn the Independent National Electoral Commission into sharp political controversy.
On Wednesday, INEC announced that it would no longer recognise several leaders of the party, including National Chairman David Mark and National Secretary Rauf Aregbesola, citing a Court of Appeal judgment directing the commission to maintain the status quo pending the resolution of a case before the Federal High Court.
The decision has sparked outrage among opposition leaders, who accuse the electoral body of acting under the influence of the ruling All Progressives Congress.
Speaking at a press conference in Abuja, Mark called for the immediate resignation or removal of INEC Chairman Prof Joash Amupitan and other national commissioners.
“We no longer have confidence in them. We are convinced that they are incapable of conducting any credible election,” Mark said.
He argued that the party’s leadership structure was legitimately established during a National Executive Committee meeting held in July 2025 and monitored by INEC officials.
Mark also accused the commission of deliberately misinterpreting the Court of Appeal’s directive in a manner that undermines the party.
However, INEC rejected the allegations and defended its actions.
In a statement issued by the Chief Press Secretary to the INEC Chairman, Adedayo Oketola, the commission insisted that it was acting strictly in compliance with the Constitution and the Court of Appeal judgment.
INEC also dismissed claims that it was promoting a one-party agenda, noting that it had recently registered three additional political parties, bringing the number of recognised parties in the country to 22.
The commission stressed that it remains a neutral electoral regulator and will not be drawn into internal disputes within political parties.
Despite the assurances, the controversy surrounding the ADC crisis has heightened political tension across the country, particularly with the Ekiti and Osun off-cycle governorship elections scheduled for June and August 2026 respectively.
For many observers, the unfolding dispute represents an early indicator of the fierce political battles likely to shape Nigeria’s path toward the 2027 presidential election.
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