France is heading for another wave of political chaos as Prime Minister François Bayrou prepares for a confidence vote on Monday that he is almost certain to lose, threatening to bring down his minority government less than a year after Michel Barnier’s administration collapsed.
Bayrou’s troubles stem from his 2026 budget plan, which includes €44 billion ($51.3 billion) in spending cuts designed to shrink France’s budget deficit from 5.8% of GDP in 2024 to 4.6% by 2026, still above EU limits.
Opposition parties on both the left and right have rejected the proposal, condemning cuts to public services, pensions, and social benefits, as well as tax increases and a plan to scrap two public holidays.
The confidence vote is expected after 5 p.m. local time, with economists widely predicting Bayrou’s defeat. Financial markets are watching closely: France’s 30-year bond yield stood at 4.35% on Monday, while the 10-year yield hit 3.43%.
If Bayrou falls, President Emmanuel Macron will be forced to appoint his fifth prime minister in under two years, a sign of deepening instability since his gamble on a snap election last year backfired, leaving parliament splintered between left-wing and far-right blocs, CNBC reported.
Deutsche Bank analysts say Macron will likely seek a successor who can build a majority, possibly through a deal with the centre-left Socialists, while the far-right National Rally is calling for fresh elections. With nationwide strikes looming on September 10 and 18, the political crisis could worsen in the coming weeks.
Pascal Cagni, president of C4 Industries, warned that lasting stability is unlikely before the 2027 presidential election. “The truth is you’ve got three blocks and none of them have won the elections. You will not resolve that until the presidential elections,” he said at the Ambrosetti Forum.
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