Nigeria lost about 3.33 million barrels of crude oil to theft in 2025, even as the country grappled with rising expenditure on energy security and declining revenue from its petroleum resources.
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), in its 2025 annual report released on Thursday, disclosed that crude theft surged in the final quarter, accounting for almost two-thirds of the total volume recorded throughout the year.
According to the report, 2.19 million barrels of crude were stolen between October and December 2025, representing 65.8 per cent of the annual losses.
The figure was nearly five times the 440,434 barrels recorded in the third quarter, underscoring the scale of the challenge facing the country's oil production and evacuation infrastructure.
In the first quarter, the commission recorded 896,471 barrels of crude theft, while the second quarter produced a negative figure of 200,400 barrels, which the regulator attributed to excess volumes discovered during reconciliation.
The quarterly figures translated to approximately 3.33 million barrels of crude lost to theft during the year.
The development came as the NUPRC recorded a significant decline in its revenue collections, which fell from N12.56tn in 2024 to N10.42tn in 2025.
The N2.14tn reduction represented a 17.03 per cent decline, despite improved receipts from gas flare penalties, signature bonuses, concession rentals and miscellaneous revenue.
The scale of the losses also raises concerns about the economic implications of crude theft, particularly at a time when Nigeria is seeking to maximise oil production, strengthen foreign exchange earnings and increase revenue available to finance public expenditure.
The challenge persisted despite the substantial resources committed to protecting petroleum infrastructure.
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) reported spending N8.67tn on energy security in 2025, compared with approximately N3.1tn in 2024.
Although the expenditure covered wider energy security interventions and cannot be attributed entirely to the fight against crude theft, the continued incidence of oil losses has renewed questions about the effectiveness of security operations in the sector.
Meanwhile, Nigeria produced 541.08 million barrels of crude oil and blended condensate in 2025.
A quarterly breakdown showed that production stood at 132.70 million barrels in the first quarter, 137.69 million barrels in the second, 137.45 million barrels in the third and 133.23 million barrels in the fourth quarter.
An additional 48.52 million barrels of unblended condensate were produced during the year.
On the revenue front, royalties from oil and gas, including Project Gazelle and NNPC receivables, accounted for the largest share of the commission's collections.
The revenue stream generated N8.97tn in 2025, down from N11.08tn in 2024, representing a decrease of N2.11tn or 19.03 per cent.
The report showed that the commission generated N10.42tn against a projected revenue target of N16.54tn, translating to 63 per cent performance.
It put the NUPRC's approved budget for the year at N645.46bn, while total income and expenditure stood at N342.81bn and N304.53bn, respectively.
Despite the overall decline in collections, some revenue categories recorded significant growth.
Receipts from gas flare penalties rose by 56.27 per cent, increasing from N391.26bn in 2024 to N611.42bn in 2025.
Signature bonuses increased by 44.2 per cent, from N369.58bn to N532.94bn, while concession rentals climbed by 61.1 per cent, from N23.71bn to N38.19bn.
Miscellaneous revenue also improved from N35.20bn to N46.44bn.
However, royalty by price declined from N313.72bn to N213.41bn, while lease renewal receipts suffered a steep drop from N230.73bn in 2024 to N8.23bn in 2025.
The commission's income from the cost of revenue collection and internally generated revenue increased by 21.85 per cent to N342.81bn, compared with N281.34bn in the previous year.
The cost of revenue collection accounted for N335.45bn of the amount, while internally generated revenue contributed N7.36bn.
The report also highlighted the continuing environmental consequences of activities in the upstream petroleum sector, documenting 357 oil spill incidents in 2025.
Of the reported incidents, sabotage accounted for 49.5 per cent, further pointing to the role of criminal activities in the challenges confronting oil-producing communities and the country's petroleum industry.
The commission further disclosed that its revenue had grown by 64.74 per cent in 2024 compared with 2023, before declining by 20.53 per cent in 2025 over the preceding year, as stated in the report.
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