Nigeria failed to reach its 2025 crude oil production target, producing 530.41 million barrels - 166.86 million barrels below the budgeted 766.5 million barrels, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
Despite the shortfall, the country earned approximately N55.5 trillion from crude sales, up from N50.88 trillion in 2024. The estimate is based on total crude output multiplied by an average Bonny Light price of $72.08 per barrel and converted at N1,450 to the dollar.
Production fluctuated during the year, starting strong at 47.7 million barrels in January, dipping to 41.02 million in February, and stabilising through the second quarter. The third quarter saw another slump, with a low of 41.69 million barrels in September, before a modest rebound in the final months.
The shortfall meant Nigeria struggled to meet its OPEC quota of 1.5 million barrels per day, surpassing it only in January, June, and July. By December, daily output was 1.422 million barrels, equivalent to 95 per cent of the quota.
Crude prices partly cushioned revenue. Bonny Light traded at $80.76 per barrel in January, dropping to $65.90 in May, and stabilising around $70–$73 per barrel in the third quarter. Applying the average price yields an estimated gross revenue of $38.23 billion (N55.5 trillion), though analysts note this does not reflect actual government receipts after production costs, joint venture obligations, or oil theft.
In comparison, Nigeria produced 408.68 million barrels in 2024, generating N50.88 trillion. Part of past production has also serviced loans, including N991 billion in crude repayment to the African Export-Import Bank in 2024, leaving an outstanding balance of N3.8 trillion at year-end.
The missed target has prompted more conservative 2026 benchmarks, including daily output of 1.84 million barrels, a crude price of $64.85 per barrel, and an exchange rate of N1,400 per dollar. Security risks, infrastructure constraints, and market volatility remain key challenges to meeting production goals.
While Nigeria’s 2025 earnings highlight oil’s continued economic importance, the shortfall underscores persistent operational and structural issues in the upstream sector.
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