Nigerians may face another round of rising rice prices following a recommendation by a presidentially backed agribusiness policy committee for the Federal Government to shut existing rice import windows, a move that could significantly tighten supply in the domestic market.
The recommendation was made by the National Agribusiness Policy Mechanism (NAPM), which advised that the import windows opened to tame runaway food inflation should now be formally closed, citing the sharp moderation in food inflation and concerns over the impact of imports on local producers.
The proposal comes despite the recent easing of rice prices across major markets, where the cost of a 50kg bag fell from about N76,000 to N55,000 after the government allowed increased food imports to stabilise prices.
Analysts warn that ending rice imports without a commensurate rise in domestic output could reverse those gains, especially as survey data indicate that local rice production is already declining.
Nigeria imported an estimated 2.4 million metric tonnes of rice in 2025, spending over N1tn in the process. Based on benchmark prices published by S&P Global Platts, the volume of imports suggests a significant foreign exchange outflow, although the figures are indicative and based on free-on-board prices rather than actual transaction values.
At Thailand’s benchmark price of about $370 per tonne for five per cent broken white rice, the import volume would amount to an estimated $888m, equivalent to about N1.26tn at the Central Bank of Nigeria’s NFEM exchange rate of N1,418.95 to the dollar as of January 26. Using India’s lower price of about $347 per tonne, the cost would still reach approximately N1.18tn.
According to the communiqué issued after the Second Cycle Meeting of the NAPM, held in Abuja in December 2025, the committee recommended closing rice import windows “given that food inflation has fallen below 14 per cent.”
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that food inflation eased from 26.08 per cent in January 2025 to 10.84 per cent in December, prompting policymakers to reassess emergency import measures introduced when inflation exceeded 40 per cent.
The committee said Nigeria recorded a technically positive food balance across major staple crops by the end of 2025. However, it cautioned that rice and wheat supply remained structurally dependent on imports, leaving the food system vulnerable.
According to the indicative national food balance sheet reviewed at the meeting, Nigeria produced about 6.07 million metric tonnes of rice in 2025, while imports stood at 2.4 million metric tonnes. With no reserves or exports recorded, total availability reached about 8.66 million metric tonnes, resulting in a surplus of roughly 1.1 million metric tonnes.
But the committee stressed that the surplus was driven mainly by imports rather than domestic productivity gains. “Rice shows a surplus of approximately 1.1 million metric tonnes, largely sustained by historically high import levels rather than domestic production capacity,” the communiqué stated.
This distinction is critical, participants warned, because any abrupt halt to imports could expose underlying supply weaknesses and trigger fresh price pressures.
Structured field surveys conducted across 13 pilot states and covering over 33,500 farmers showed that rice farmers experienced severe profitability challenges following the opening of import windows. While input costs such as fertiliser, energy and irrigation remained high or increased, output prices fell sharply, resulting in negative gross margins.
The surveys also revealed that rice production declined by 7.9 per cent during the 2025 wet season, reflecting reduced incentives for farmers amid falling prices and rising costs.
In the absence of a Guaranteed Minimum Price or other stabilisation mechanism, the committee noted that farmers were left unprotected when market prices dropped below production costs, particularly in rice and maize markets.
The findings raise concerns that local output may weaken further. A dry-season farmer intention survey showed that 10.6 per cent of rice farmers plan to scale back production in the 2025/2026 cycle, with many shifting to vegetables, wheat and export-oriented crops that offer more predictable returns.
Participants warned that these production shifts, combined with restricted imports, could tighten rice supply and push prices upward later in the year.
The committee also highlighted structural constraints undermining rice production, including weak extension services. Nigeria’s extension agent-to-farmer ratio was estimated at about one to 6,466, limiting the uptake of improved seeds and modern agronomic practices.
As part of its recommendations, the Presidential Food Systems Coordinating Unit was mandated to prepare a technical memo to the National Council on Agriculture and Food Security advocating the cessation of rice imports. The memo will be forwarded to the National Economic Council and the Federal Executive Council for consideration.
Meanwhile, the Tinubu administration faces mounting pressure from private sector players to scrap food import waivers introduced in July 2024. Rice millers and farmers argue that cheap imports have forced mills to shut down, led to job losses and discouraged investment.
Chairman of the Competitive African Rice Forum Nigeria, Peter Dama, recently warned that persistent importation without subsidies or production support could destroy the local rice industry, urging the government to engage stakeholders rather than rely on price-crashing directives.
With domestic output under strain and imports under review, experts say the government faces a difficult trade-off between protecting local producers and preventing another surge in rice prices that could deepen the cost-of-living crisis.
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