Crude oil prices jumped Tuesday, driven by mounting concerns over Russian supply disruptions and uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade and monetary policies.
Brent crude for November delivery advanced 1.92% to $69.46 a barrel as of 10:54 a.m. Nigerian time. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) October contract jumped 3.06% to $65.97 after the Labor Day holiday kept markets shut on Monday.
The gains follow renewed fears about the security of Russian oil exports amid intensified Ukrainian drone strikes.
Reports indicate that the attacks have knocked out facilities representing about 17% of Russia’s refining capacity, according to Reuters estimates.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy pledged “new deep strikes” at the weekend, even as Western diplomatic efforts to broker a ceasefire continue to stall.
Adding to market jitters, Washington escalated pressure on Moscow’s allies by slapping extra tariffs on imports from India over its ongoing purchases of Russian crude. India dismissed the move as “unfair, unjustified and unreasonable.”
The dispute comes as U.S. President Donald Trump described U.S.-India trade relations as a “totally one-sided disaster,” fueling speculation of further tensions. So far, the White House has held back on measures against China, Russia’s top oil customer since the G7 price cap was introduced.
Meanwhile, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin this week showcased the growing alignment between Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi—underscoring a deepening bloc outside Western influence.
Attention now turns to the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for September 7. The eight-member alliance, including Russia and Saudi Arabia, is widely expected to maintain current production levels after unwinding 2.2 million barrels per day of earlier output cuts.
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“We believe, just like the broader market, that the group will leave production levels unchanged for October,” analysts at ING wrote. They noted that a supply surplus through next year makes additional output unlikely, while the bigger risk could be a return to production cuts.
U.S. jobs data, Fed policy in focus
Oil traders are also watching for the U.S. August jobs report, due later this week. The data will shape expectations ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Sept. 16-17 meeting, where a rate cut is widely anticipated. Lower U.S. rates could weaken the dollar and boost demand for dollar-denominated commodities like crude.
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