South Africa has emerged as Africa’s leading importer of refined petroleum products, overtaking Nigeria, according to a new report by energy consultancy CITAC. The shift comes as Nigeria scales back its fuel imports, driven by the ramp-up in output from the Dangote Petrochemical Refinery.
The report marks a major milestone in Africa’s downstream oil market, reflecting how the operationalisation of the Dangote refinery—Africa’s largest—has begun reshaping regional energy trade dynamics.
Operational since early 2024, the 650,000 barrels-per-day single-train facility is already disrupting traditional import patterns across sub-Saharan Africa. Nigeria, once the continent’s biggest fuel importer despite being its largest crude oil producer, is now importing far less fuel due to growing domestic refining capacity.
According to CITAC’s data released on Wednesday, Nigeria imported 3.1 million metric tonnes of refined petroleum products in the first quarter of 2025. In contrast, South Africa imported 4.2 million metric tonnes over the same period, taking the lead on the continent.
“Nigerian imports are dropping as a result of the continued operation of Dangote,” said Elitsa Georgieva, Executive Director at CITAC.
She added that crude throughput across sub-Saharan African refineries rose sharply—by 77.8 per cent year-on-year in 2024—jumping from an average of 382,500 barrels per day in 2023 to 680,100 barrels per day in 2024. “This leap was almost entirely driven by the Dangote plant,” Georgieva explained.
The development signals a transformative moment for Nigeria’s energy sector, which has long struggled with the paradox of importing refined fuel while exporting crude oil.
CITAC projected that Nigeria’s total refined fuel imports will fall to 6.4 million metric tonnes in 2025—less than half of South Africa’s projected 15.5 million tonnes for the year.
“The Nigerian market has undergone major product flow changes since mid-2023. The long-awaited 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery near Lagos began operations in January 2024, steadily ramping up throughput and streaming secondary units throughout the year,” the report stated.
“Output from the Dangote refinery has displaced the bulk of international clean products imports in West Africa.”
The report further noted that the Dangote plant has already ramped up operations to 550,000 barrels per day, providing a substantial portion of the country's domestic fuel needs. As Nigeria’s reliance on imports dwindles, South Africa’s dependence on foreign fuel supplies continues to grow.
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