The ongoing war involving Iran, Israel, and the United States is sending shockwaves through global energy markets, forcing African nations to turn to homegrown solutions like the Dangote Refinery to secure vital fuel supplies.
Crude oil prices have surged to nearly $120 per barrel amid heightened tensions in the Gulf and disruptions to critical shipping routes, notably the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global oil transport. The fallout has intensified pressure on African countries to rely on local refining infrastructure, with the Dangote Refinery emerging as a linchpin in stabilising the continent’s energy supply.
In response to the market pressures, the refinery on Friday raised its ex-depot petrol price from N1,175 to N1,245 per litre, while the coastal price increased to N1,606,518 per metric tonne. The adjustments, effective from March 21, were attributed to rising crude costs and global geopolitical instability.
Aliko Dangote, president of the Aliko Dangote Group, described the situation as volatile and unpredictable. “It’s a crazy situation right now,” he said, adding that the upward pressure on fuel prices is expected to persist.
The facility, Africa’s largest refinery with a processing capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, has seen unprecedented demand from across the continent as countries scramble to secure fuel amid tightening global supply.
“People are ready to pay anything now,” Dangote revealed, highlighting the intense competition for refined products.
The refinery’s strategic importance has grown not just for supply but also for Nigeria’s economy, helping to reduce dependence on imported petroleum and easing foreign exchange pressures. “Nigeria would have been at a standstill now without the refinery,” Dangote said, underscoring its role in maintaining national economic stability.
Beyond immediate supply challenges, Dangote positioned the refinery as a cornerstone for Africa’s industrial future, calling for greater local investment in manufacturing and infrastructure. “If we Africans don’t lead in the industrialisation of Africa, Africa will never industrialise,” he said.
The integrated facility boasts extensive storage capacity, a dedicated port, and even an airstrip under construction, illustrating its unprecedented scale. “Actually we are building a runway there. Nobody believes something like this exists in Africa,” Dangote added.
The refinery’s significance has further increased due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, affecting crude oil, fertiliser, and petrochemical shipments - areas in which the Dangote complex also operates.
Looking ahead, Dangote announced plans to expand refining capacity and potentially list part of the refinery on the Nigerian and London stock exchanges. He also aims to use gas produced at the complex to power nearby industrial projects, potentially transforming the area into a major manufacturing hub.
The group’s vision extends beyond Nigeria, with ongoing investments in fertiliser production in Ethiopia and ventures in cement, power, and mining across Zimbabwe, Zambia, Ghana, and Côte d’Ivoire. Yet Dangote expressed scepticism about other African nations replicating such large-scale projects. “I can’t see any African country today building a refinery. Even when they have the capital, they are scared to invest. We are not.”
Meanwhile, geopolitical shifts continue to shape energy markets. U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that Washington may be nearing the end of its military campaign against Iran. “We are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great military efforts in the Middle East,” he said, claiming U.S. forces have significantly degraded Iranian military capabilities.
Trump also called on nations reliant on the Strait of Hormuz to take greater responsibility for securing the route. “The United States does not [need to police it],” he said. “If asked, we will help… but it shouldn’t be necessary once Iran’s threat is eradicated.”
He further criticised NATO allies for not supporting U.S. operations, branding them “cowards” and accusing them of complaining about high oil prices while avoiding military involvement.
In parallel, the United Kingdom authorised U.S. forces to use British bases for strikes on Iranian missile sites targeting vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting the global stakes of the conflict and the urgency of securing alternative supply channels like the Dangote Refinery.
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