The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) will suspend oil production increases during the first quarter of 2026, citing a projected slowdown in global demand and the need to stabilise the oil market.
In a statement issued after a virtual meeting on Sunday, key producers - Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman - agreed to go ahead with a modest 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) output hike in December 2025 before pausing any further increases between January and March 2026.
According to the statement, the decision reflects seasonal demand patterns and continued uncertainty in global energy markets.
“The eight participating countries reiterated that the 1.65 million barrels per day may be returned in part or in full, subject to evolving market conditions and in a gradual manner,” OPEC+ said.
“They reaffirmed the importance of a cautious approach and flexibility to pause or reverse voluntary adjustments, including the previously implemented 2.2 million barrels per day reduction announced in November 2023.”
Focus on market balance
The latest move marks a cautious shift by OPEC+ after several months of steady output growth. The group said its previous production hikes were driven by “healthy fundamentals” and low oil stock levels, but it now expects weaker demand at the start of 2026 due to slower industrial activity and reduced consumption during the winter months.
Earlier in the year, the cartel approved its first major output increase since 2022, beginning in April, amid calls from U.S. President Donald Trump for lower oil prices.
Another 137,000 bpd hike was approved in October to take effect in November 2025 — a move OPEC+ said would help balance supply and demand and prevent price volatility.
The alliance noted that these increases have been gradually drawn from the 1.65 million bpd voluntary cut introduced in April 2023, as part of efforts to manage market fluctuations.
Analysts see cautious approach
Energy analysts say OPEC+’s decision to freeze production hikes underscores its determination to defend oil prices in the face of softer global growth, rising interest rates, and geopolitical uncertainty.
By maintaining flexibility to either resume increases or reintroduce cuts, the group is signalling its intent to act swiftly should prices come under pressure in early 2026.
The move, analysts add, highlights OPEC+’s continued balancing act - seeking to support prices without undermining demand recovery or triggering friction with major consuming nations.
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