The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, OPEC+, have decided to pause planned increases in oil production through the first quarter of 2026, keeping output at current levels amid a growing global supply glut and uncertainty over Venezuela’s future oil output.
The decision was taken at a brief virtual meeting on Sunday, led by the group’s key producers, Saudi Arabia and Russia, Bloomberg reported. Delegates said OPEC+ opted for caution, noting it would be premature to adjust supply in response to recent developments in Venezuela, following reports that the country’s leader, Nicolás Maduro, had been captured by United States forces.
According to the report, the meeting lasted less than 10 minutes and included no detailed discussions on Venezuela. While members acknowledged that the Venezuelan output outlook could become a critical issue in the coming months, they agreed that any immediate supply response would be hasty. Key producers confirmed that collective production levels will be maintained at least until the end of March 2026.
Global crude markets have been under pressure from oversupply. Oil futures fell about 18 per cent in 2025, marking the steepest annual decline since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Analysts forecast that production from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries is expected to continue outpacing demand growth in 2026, further widening the supply glut.
Venezuela, which holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, currently produces roughly 800,000 barrels per day - less than one per cent of global output and a fraction of its historical capacity. Analysts say a meaningful recovery in Venezuelan output would take years, even with foreign investment and political stability.
US President Donald Trump has indicated that American oil companies could invest billions to restore Venezuela’s energy infrastructure following the reported operation involving Maduro. However, Bloomberg sources said key oil facilities were not damaged, reducing the likelihood of an immediate supply shock.
The latest pause comes after a strategic shift by OPEC+ in April 2025, when the group began rapidly unwinding production cuts introduced in 2023. The move, aimed at reclaiming market share lost to US shale producers, was made despite signals that global supply was already abundant. Prior to Sunday’s meeting, OPEC+ had restored about two-thirds of the 3.85 million barrels per day of output previously curtailed, leaving roughly 1.2 million barrels per day yet to return. Actual supply increases have lagged behind targets due to capacity constraints and compensatory adjustments by some members.
The decision has significant implications for oil-dependent economies, including Nigeria. As Africa’s largest crude producer and an OPEC member, Nigeria’s fiscal position, foreign exchange inflows, and government revenue remain heavily tied to oil prices and export volumes. By holding production steady in a market already facing surplus, OPEC+ is likely to keep crude prices relatively stable but subdued, limiting revenue upside.
Nigeria’s ability to benefit from potential price gains is further constrained by oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and underinvestment in upstream assets. Analysts warn that prolonged weak prices could strain public finances, widen budget deficits, and pressure the naira. In response, the Federal Government continues to implement reforms aimed at boosting domestic production, improving refining capacity, and diversifying the economy through non-oil exports and stronger domestic revenue mobilisation.
With OPEC+ controlling a large share of global oil supply, the group’s production decisions carry outsized influence over market prices and the economic fortunes of oil-exporting nations worldwide.
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