Nigeria's economy could more than double in size by 2030 if the planned expansion of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery delivers its projected multiplier effects, economist Bismarck Rewane has said.
Rewane, Chief Executive Officer of Financial Derivatives Company (FDC), said at the Abuja investor roadshow for the refinery's N2.15 trillion Initial Public Offering (IPO) that the investment could raise Nigeria's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from about $278 billion in 2025 to approximately $600 billion by 2030.
He said the expected expansion of the refinery from its present capacity of between 650,000 and 700,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million barrels per day could have far-reaching consequences for industrial production, investment, consumption and exports.
According to Rewane, consumer spending could rise from $166 billion to $240 billion, while investment could increase from $72 billion to $216 billion as the refinery's expansion stimulates activity across the wider economy.
He also projected that stronger net exports could support the naira and contribute further to the growth in the value of economic output.
Rewane estimated that the refinery currently accounted for 16.91 per cent of Nigeria's GDP by valuation and about 45 per cent of the country's stock market capitalisation.
He consequently urged Nigerians to participate in the public offer, describing the refinery as an investment with the potential to generate significant economic and industrial benefits.
“Start small, stay invested, reinvest in the gains, and build wealth,” he said.
The chairman of the Abuja roadshow, Oluwagbenga Oyebode, said the IPO represented a major development for Nigeria's capital market, with the potential to substantially increase market capitalisation and strengthen the representation of the energy and downstream petroleum sector on the Nigerian Exchange.
The offer comprises 4.1 billion ordinary shares at N525 each, with expected net proceeds of about N2.1 trillion. The shares represent 3.3 per cent of the company's issued capital.
Oyebode said the proceeds would be used exclusively to finance the next phase of the refinery's expansion, rather than to address existing balance-sheet obligations.
He described the transaction, which has been approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), as the first major public offering under the Investment and Securities Act 2025.
He projected that the IPO could increase the Nigerian Exchange's total market capitalisation from about N160 trillion to N225 trillion while improving liquidity and diversifying the sectors represented on the bourse.
In a move aimed at attracting ordinary Nigerians, the promoters have set the minimum subscription at 10 shares, costing N5,250.
Oyebode said the promoters were targeting about 10 million retail investors and that the offer had been assessed as Sharia-compliant.
Representing Dangote Group President, Aliko Dangote, at the event, Regional Adviser Fatima Wali Abdulrahman said the IPO formed part of the group's broader strategy to accelerate industrialisation across Africa.
Dangote said the company expected to raise N2.15 trillion, approximately $1.6 billion, from the offer to fund the refinery's expansion.
He said the low minimum subscription was intended to promote broad-based ownership of the facility.
“Our objective is for every Nigerian to own a piece of this asset,” Dangote said.
He also disclosed plans for the group's expansion into Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania and Namibia, as well as plans to pursue listings in about six other African countries.
According to him, Africans should play a leading role in driving the continent's economic development, with the Dangote refinery and petrochemical complex positioned to create value across several African markets.
Oyebode said the planned expansion would not only boost refined petroleum production but also increase Nigeria's participation in higher-value areas of the oil and gas value chain, including petrochemicals, fertiliser, polymers and industrial feedstock.
Professor Uche Uwaleke of Nasarawa State University, another speaker at the event, advised investors to retain their shares as a long-term investment.
Uwaleke said the IPO prospectus provided for a bonus of one additional share for investors who retained their holdings for at least one year.
He urged greater participation from retail investors, including artisans, employees and small-business owners, saying the opportunity should be made accessible to Nigerians across different income groups.
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