The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has disclosed that Nigeria failed to capture an estimated N8.83 trillion in public expenditure in recent budget documents, warning that the omission is obscuring the country's true fiscal position and financing needs.
The Fund said the unreported spending, equivalent to about two per cent of Nigeria's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), has created a statistical discrepancy between the fiscal deficit officially reported by the government and the actual level of public expenditure and borrowing.
Speaking at a business forum in Lagos, IMF Resident Representative in Nigeria, Christian Ebeke, said the expenditure should have been properly recorded to provide a more accurate picture of government finances.
According to him, the omission largely stems from capital projects and other government spending carried out outside the formal budget process.
"So far we think that there are about two per cent of GDP of expenditure that were not reported that should be reported and should be recorded, so that this statistical discrepancy will disappear," Ebeke said.
Based on the National Bureau of Statistics' (NBS) latest nominal GDP estimate of N441.5 trillion for 2025, the two per cent figure amounts to approximately N8.83 trillion. At the average 2025 exchange rate of N1,436 to the United States dollar, the value is estimated at about $6.15 billion.
The NBS recently reported that Nigeria's nominal GDP grew from N372.8 trillion in 2024 to N441.5 trillion in 2025, reflecting improved activity in both the oil and non-oil sectors of the economy.
Ebeke explained that because some expenditures were not reflected in budget documents and implementation reports, the government's fiscal deficit appeared smaller than it actually was.
He noted that the practice makes it difficult for analysts, investors and policymakers to accurately assess the country's fiscal health and public investment levels.
The IMF official further warned that incomplete reporting of government spending could undermine economic management by weakening coordination between fiscal authorities and the Central Bank.
"The lack of full reporting can also complicate coordination between fiscal and monetary policy, as policymakers may not have a clear picture of the true deficit," he stated.
He added that spending outside approved budget frameworks raises concerns about transparency, procurement procedures and oversight mechanisms within the public sector.
According to Ebeke, improving fiscal transparency remains essential to strengthening confidence in government finances and ensuring that public resources are managed efficiently.
While highlighting the challenges, the IMF representative acknowledged efforts by Nigerian authorities to address the issue through ongoing reforms aimed at strengthening budget reporting and public financial management.
He said recent moves to revise budget laws and improve the reporting framework could help eliminate the discrepancies if properly implemented.
Ebeke stressed that legal reforms alone would not be sufficient unless accompanied by timely publication of budget implementation reports and comprehensive disclosure of all government expenditures.
The IMF's concerns come amid growing scrutiny of public finances following the rebasing of Nigeria's GDP by the National Bureau of Statistics, which shifted the base year from 2010 to 2019 and significantly increased the estimated size of the economy.
The disclosure also follows the IMF's latest assessment of Nigeria's economy under its Article IV Consultation process, where the Fund praised ongoing economic reforms for helping to stabilise macroeconomic conditions but cautioned that transparency and structural challenges still require urgent attention.
The Fund maintained that accurate reporting of public spending is critical to improving fiscal credibility, enhancing oversight and ensuring that economic policy decisions are based on reliable data.
Leave a Reply