A new World Bank assessment has revealed that nearly 80 per cent of Nigerians remain poor or vulnerable to poverty despite a series of economic reforms implemented by the Federal Government over the past three years.
The findings, contained in the World Bank’s newly approved Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Nigeria covering 2026–2032 and its accompanying Streamlined Country Diagnostic report, underscore the scale of the country’s socio-economic challenges even as key macroeconomic indicators show signs of improvement.
According to the reports, 61 per cent of Nigerians currently live below the poverty line, while 33 per cent are classified as ultra-poor, unable to meet basic food requirements. Overall, about 79 per cent of the population is either poor or at risk of slipping back into poverty.
The World Bank estimated that approximately 139 million Nigerians are living below the national poverty threshold, with the burden of poverty most severe in northern parts of the country.
While acknowledging recent reforms aimed at stabilising the economy, the institution said their impact has yet to be felt by a majority of citizens.
The report noted that policy measures such as the removal of fuel subsidies, exchange-rate reforms, tighter monetary policies and tax adjustments have helped improve economic stability, strengthen foreign reserves and restore investor confidence.
Economic growth, according to the Bank, rose from 3.5 per cent in the first half of 2024 to 3.9 per cent during the same period in 2025, while foreign reserves surpassed $42 billion and fiscal deficits narrowed.
However, the Bank warned that persistent inflation continues to erode household incomes and limit the gains from the reforms.
It observed that although inflation has moderated in recent months, rising living costs continue to place significant pressure on low-income households, while social intervention programmes have been slow to reach many of the intended beneficiaries.
The report further highlighted structural weaknesses in the economy, including inadequate infrastructure, weak institutions, policy coordination challenges and limited transparency in public spending.
The World Bank identified job creation as the most effective pathway out of poverty and said its new partnership framework would focus heavily on supporting employment generation through private sector-led growth.
According to the report, Nigeria faces an enormous employment challenge, with between three and four million young people entering the labour market annually and about 60 million expected to join the workforce over the next decade.
Yet, the majority of workers remain concentrated in low-productivity informal jobs, while one in four young Nigerians is neither employed, in school nor undergoing vocational training.
The Bank stressed that economic reforms would only deliver meaningful poverty reduction if they are accompanied by large-scale job creation, particularly in agriculture, manufacturing and small businesses.
It also raised concerns over the country’s limited social protection system, noting that only a small percentage of poor Nigerians currently benefit from social safety programmes.
According to the report, public spending on social protection accounted for just 0.14 per cent of Gross Domestic Product in 2021, while only 8.5 per cent of poor citizens had access to any form of social safety net.
To address the gap, the World Bank said it would support efforts to expand social protection coverage, strengthen the national social register and improve digital payment systems to ensure assistance reaches vulnerable households more effectively.
The institution aims to help Nigeria extend social protection coverage to about 41 million people under the new framework.
Beyond income poverty, the report pointed to major deficits in education, healthcare and human capital development.
It revealed that 84 per cent of Nigerian children between the ages of five and 14 are unable to read age-appropriate texts, despite years of schooling, while widespread childhood malnutrition continues to undermine future productivity and economic prospects.
The Bank recommended greater investment in education, nutrition, healthcare, sanitation and early childhood development to break the cycle of intergenerational poverty.
Reviewing the previous Country Partnership Framework covering 2021 to 2025, the World Bank noted that poverty levels worsened during the period due to the combined effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation, insecurity, fuel subsidy costs and foreign exchange distortions.
It estimated that the national poverty rate increased from about 40 per cent in 2019 to 61 per cent in 2025, despite interventions supported by development partners.
The institution said preserving the momentum of ongoing reforms while accelerating private investment, improving governance and creating productive jobs would be critical if Nigeria is to achieve sustained poverty reduction.
The report concluded that macroeconomic stability alone would not be sufficient to transform living conditions unless it is accompanied by policies that generate employment opportunities and expand access to essential social services for millions of Nigerians.
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