The average cost of preparing a pot of jollof rice in Nigeria fell by 11.5 per cent between June and September 2026, but the decline has provided limited relief to households still struggling with high living costs and inadequate incomes.
A report by SBM Intelligence, titled The Pot Cools, but Not Everywhere, attributed the reduction largely to lower prices of chicken, vegetable oil, beef, tomatoes and red peppers.
According to the geopolitical research firm, the national average cost of preparing the meal dropped from N29,578 in June to N26,178 in September, representing the largest quarterly decline since it launched its Jollof Index in July 2016.
However, SBM said a recording error involving curry and thyme prices in Ibadan had overstated the reduction. After correcting the error, the cost fell by 8.5 per cent to approximately N27,055.
The firm noted that despite the recent decline, the September figure remained 5.8 per cent higher than the N24,749 recorded in the corresponding period of 2025.
It was also about 540 per cent above the N4,087 recorded when the index was introduced in July 2016.
“The National Average Jollof Index fell from N29,578 in June 2026 to N26,178 in September 2026, a fall of 11.5 percent. Over the 15 months since the rebasing, the index is up 1.5 percent, from N25,798 in July 2025,” the report said.
SBM explained that the price decline was driven mainly by protein and cooking oil, rather than staple food items.
Chicken recorded a combined price reduction of N9,700 across the markets surveyed, while vegetable oil prices fell by N7,350. Beef declined by N4,100, tomatoes by N2,600 and red peppers by N2,650.
The firm attributed the changes partly to seasonal harvest patterns and movements in poultry feed costs.
The index, which tracks the prices of 12 ingredients used in preparing jollof rice across 13 Nigerian markets, fell by N2,312 between June and July. It declined by a further N104 in August and N984 in September.
Lagos markets record sharpest price reduction
The report showed that the cost of preparing jollof rice declined in most of the markets surveyed, although the extent of the reductions differed across locations.
Lagos recorded the steepest decline, with prices at the Trade Fair and Balogun markets dropping from N34,700 in June to N22,350 in September, representing a 35.6 per cent reduction.
In Kano, the cost fell by 9.4 per cent, from N25,820 to N23,400, while Bauchi recorded a 4.6 per cent decline, from N32,350 to N30,850.
The index also dropped by 2.6 per cent to N24,800 at Abuja's Nyanya market and by 4.8 per cent to N27,800 at Wuse II.
Port Harcourt was the only market where the cost increased, rising by 2.6 per cent from N31,200 to N32,000.
SBM linked the increase partly to flooding in Rivers State, which disrupted farms and food supplies. It also reported that headline inflation in the state rose from 14 per cent in July to 19.1 per cent in August, despite easing national inflation.
Calabar Municipal and Bayside Mbakpa recorded the highest September costs at N34,600 and N34,500, respectively. These represented year-on-year increases of 35.7 per cent and 35.3 per cent.
Onitsha and Awka had the lowest recorded costs at N21,350 each. However, the firm said the South-East figures were provisional because of questions surrounding some rice and beef prices.
Transport, other expenses undermine relief
Despite the reduction in food preparation costs, SBM said many Nigerian households were yet to experience substantial relief because other essential expenses continued to put pressure on their finances.
Transportation, rent, school fees and electricity bills remain costly, while stagnant incomes have reduced households' ability to purchase food in sufficient quantities.
One household respondent in Ibadan captured the challenge, telling the researchers: “Falling prices do not add money to the account, and the same salary cannot buy in bulk even at the lower price.”
The report identified high fuel prices and haulage charges as additional factors sustaining food costs. Petrol prices in Ibadan ranged between N1,380 and N1,400 per litre, while transporting a trailer load of goods from Lagos to Kano cost about N1.2 million.
Informal payments at checkpoints, estimated at between N500 and N1,000, also added to the cost of moving goods.
These expenses, the firm indicated, continue to influence the prices consumers pay, limiting the impact of reductions in the prices of individual food ingredients.
SBM warned that the decline in the Jollof Index might be temporary, reflecting seasonal changes in supply rather than a lasting improvement in the country's food distribution system.
The report suggests that lower food prices alone may not be sufficient to improve household welfare unless transportation and distribution costs ease and incomes become more adequate to meet basic living expenses.
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