Angola’s capital, Luanda, is on course to become sub-Saharan Africa’s most populous city by 2050, overtaking Nigeria’s commercial centre, Lagos, as its population is expected to hit 20.3 million.
The World Bank, in a report titled Sub-Saharan Africa’s Urban Awakening: Catalyzing Economic Growth and Job Creation, projected that Luanda would record a 78 per cent population increase between 2025 and 2050.
According to the report, the Angolan capital’s population, estimated at 11.4 million in 2025, will expand by 8.9 million over the next 25 years.
Lagos, currently ranked as the most populous city in sub-Saharan Africa, is expected to experience slower population growth, rising from 12.8 million in 2025 to 16.2 million by 2050.
The projection means Luanda would have approximately 4.1 million more residents than Lagos by the end of the period.
The estimates were developed through calculations by the World Bank and the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre, drawing on population data from Schiavina and other researchers.
“Over this period, the population of Angola’s capital city, Luanda, is projected to increase by 78 percent from 11.4 million to 20.3 million. In doing so, Luanda will overtake Lagos as SSA’s most populous city,” the report stated.
Urban population to increase by 748 million
The World Bank also projected a massive expansion in sub-Saharan Africa’s urban population, estimating that an additional 748 million people would live in cities across the region between 2025 and 2050.
This would take the region’s urban population to approximately 1.7 billion, compared with 913 million recorded in 2025.
The report said the region had witnessed a remarkable demographic transformation, with its urban population increasing from about 170 million in 1975 to more than 900 million five decades later.
However, it warned that the rapid expansion of cities would not necessarily translate into economic prosperity unless governments addressed persistent infrastructure and development challenges.
The institution estimated that sub-Saharan Africa would need to create about 15 million jobs every year to absorb the growing number of young people entering the labour market.
It identified inadequate infrastructure, poor public transport, weak regulatory systems and unplanned urban development as some of the major constraints limiting the ability of African cities to generate economic opportunities.
To address these challenges, the World Bank urged governments to prioritise investments in transport systems, infrastructure and affordable housing strategically located near business districts and employment centres.
It also called for improved urban planning, stronger financing capacity for local governments and policies that encourage greater private-sector participation in urban development.
The report noted that choices regarding infrastructure development, housing provision and land management over the next few years would determine whether the region’s rapidly growing cities become engines of economic growth and job creation or centres of increasing social and economic pressure.
It stressed that effective management of urbanisation would be critical to improving productivity, expanding employment opportunities and raising living standards across sub-Saharan Africa.
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