Nigeria’s rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has expanded significantly to N372.82 trillion, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), but worsening poverty levels continue to overshadow the reported growth.
The Statistician-General of the Federation, Prince Adeyemi Adeniran, disclosed yesterday that the economy grew by 3.13% in the first quarter of 2025, compared with 2.27% recorded in the same period last year. He explained that the GDP base year has been updated from 2010 to 2019, following a review process that began in 2018/2019.
“In nominal terms, the economy has grown from N205.09 trillion in the 2019 base year to N372.82 trillion,” Adeniran said. “Real estate is now the third-largest contributor to GDP, overtaking crude oil and natural gas, which dropped to fifth position. This shift is driven largely by improved coverage of the informal real estate sector.”
The new ranking of top contributors to GDP includes crop production (17.58%), trade (17.42%), real estate (10.78%), telecommunications (6.78%), and crude petroleum and natural gas (5.85%).
Expanded data coverage
Adeniran highlighted that the rebasing captured a broader range of economic activities, including digital services, mobile payments, modular refineries, water transportation, and the informal sector, which now accounts for 42.5% of total GDP—up from 41.4%.
Compared to the 59.5% jump recorded during the 2014 rebasing, this year’s update reflects a 41.1% increase. Nominal GDP grew from N213.64 trillion in 2020 to N243.30 trillion in 2021, N274.23 trillion in 2022, N314.02 trillion in 2023, and N372.82 trillion in 2024.
Real GDP growth rates over the period were -6.96% in 2020, 0.95% in 2021, 4.32% in 2022, 3.04% in 2023, and 3.38% in 2024.
Oil and non-oil sectors
Nigeria’s average crude oil production rose to 1.62 million barrels per day (mbpd) in Q1 2025, compared to 1.57 mbpd in Q1 2024 and 1.54 mbpd in Q4 2024.
The oil sector, however, grew by only 1.87% in real terms year-on-year, down from 4.71% in the same period last year. It contributed 3.97% to GDP in Q1 2025, compared to 4.02% in Q1 2024.
The non-oil sector continued to dominate the economy, expanding by 3.19% in real terms in Q1 2025, compared to 2.17% in Q1 2024. It contributed 96.03% to GDP, driven mainly by ICT, agriculture, real estate, financial services, construction, and manufacturing.
Nigeria falls behind African peers
Despite the higher nominal GDP, Nigeria remains Africa’s fourth-largest economy. At the prevailing exchange rate of N1,529.53 per dollar, Nigeria’s GDP translates to about $243.5 billion—well below South Africa’s $410.3 billion, Egypt’s $347.3 billion, and Algeria’s $268.9 billion.
This contrasts sharply with 2014, when rebasing lifted Nigeria to the top of Africa’s economic ranking, with a GDP of $509.9 billion at the time. The over 1000% depreciation of the naira since 2015 has eroded much of that advantage.
Analysts react
Economic analyst Alhaji Isiaq Ajibola described the rebasing as a step forward, particularly as real estate has now overtaken oil and gas. He praised the NBS for integrating emerging industries such as fintech, e-commerce, online entertainment, and short-let property rentals into its GDP calculations.
“However, GDP growth does not necessarily mean improved living standards. People are struggling with inflation, job scarcity, and poor purchasing power,” Ajibola cautioned.
Poverty crisis persists
The World Bank recently projected that Nigeria’s poverty rate will rise by 3.6 percentage points between 2022 and 2027. Its Africa’s Pulse report noted that resource-dependent countries like Nigeria are struggling to reduce poverty due to structural challenges and economic fragility.
NBS data shows that 63% of Nigerians—about 133 million people—are multi-dimensionally poor. The removal of fuel subsidies in 2023 has further worsened living conditions by increasing costs of goods and services.
Economist Dr. Marcel Okeke stressed the disconnect between GDP figures and citizens’ welfare. “There is a difference between economic growth and economic development. These big numbers mean little when inflation is eroding people’s incomes,” he said.
Okeke added that the new minimum wage of N70,000 buys less than what N33,000 could purchase a few years ago. “Government may share N1.8 trillion among states, but its real value is far less today,” he said.
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